Government Majority Narrows, Opposition in Striking Distance
The House vote to withdraw the casino bill offers a fresh glimpse into the current MP headcount—and into the government’s support within the chamber. This is crucial to assessing the government’s stability—or, in this case, its fragility. The House now has 492 sitting members, down from 495. All three missing seats belonged to the government camp. With the opposition holding 239 seats, it is just eight seats short of having a majority.
With Prime Minister Paetongtarn suspended—and a strong likelihood that she will either resign or be removed by the court—the wafer-thin majority gives coalition partners significant leverage. Should Pheu Thai put forward Chaikasem as its candidate for prime minister, it will likely have to make significant concessions to keep its grip on power, especially with the People’s Party offering up all of its ministerial seats if parties support its proposal for a provisional government. The numbers could shift again, but for now, the situation can only be described as nerve-racking for the government.
The three MPs reduced from the House total are as follows:
Ekkarach Changlao, Kla Tham Party, suspended by the Supreme Court
Amorntep Sommai, Pheu Thai Party, passed away — waiting on a by-election. The by-election will be in Si Saket on August 10, with Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai going head-to-head. This will be a huge popularity test following Bhum Jai Thai’s defection to the opposition and Paetongtarn’s leaked audio clip.
Suchart Chomklin, United Nation Party, resigned from the party-list