Landmark Court Ruling Sets Stage for Election Test and Wider Fallout

Pheu Thai’s popularity will face a critical test in a by-election in Chiang Rai’s Constituency 7, a traditional northern stronghold for the party. The contest follows the removal of Pheu Thai MP and Deputy House Speaker Pichet Chuamuangphan. In a landmark 6–3 ruling last Friday, the Constitutional Court found him guilty of violating Section 144 of the 2017 constitution, a provision related to budget legislation—marking the first time a politician has lost their seat under this clause.

Chiang Rai’s Constituency 7 was highly competitive in the 2023 general election, with Pheu Thai’s Pichet winning 33.96% of the vote (31,588 votes), just 5,699 votes—or 6.13%—ahead of Move Forward Party’s Prayat Siangdang, who took 27.83% (25,889 votes). Bhumjaithai’s Miranti Bunkaeo finished third with 19.51% (18,153 votes), 13,435 votes behind Pichet.

Pheu Thai is expected to discuss both a replacement for Pichet as deputy house speaker and its candidate for the Chiang Rai by-election at its weekly meeting tomorrow. If the deputy speaker post remains with a Pheu Thai member from the north, Cholnan Srikaew—a Nan MP and former public health minister—could be a contender. The Election Commission has not announced a date for the by-election, but it must be held within 45 days of the court’s verdict.

The by-election will serve as a critical barometer of Pheu Thai’s standing in the wake of the recent border crisis with Cambodia. Recent polling suggests a significant decline in the party’s popularity, raising the prospect that the race will be far more competitive than in 2023—or even result in a loss for the party. A loss would send a strong signal to Pheu Thai MPs in competitive constituencies about their own electoral vulnerability. It could also prompt some to switch parties ahead of the next general election.

Beyond the immediate stakes in Chiang Rai, the court’s ruling last week could set the stage for a much broader political reckoning. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is currently reviewing three high-profile complaints under Section 144, including one tied to the digital wallet program implicating 309 MPs and 175 senators. If the NACC finds the complaints to have merit, the cases will be referred to the Constitutional Court for a final ruling.

Should the court hear the cases, a verdict is likely to come after its decision on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leaked conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. If she is removed and the court later finds a Section 144 breach, an unprecedented constitutional and political crisis could unfold. The House could be left with fewer than 200 MPs, and the survival of the prime minister and cabinet would come into question. While Section 144 mandates that the cabinet vacate en masse if found guilty, the government at the time of the verdict may not be the same one that authorized the budget changes at issue—raising uncertainty over whether the court would apply the punishment to the new government.

Such a crisis would have serious negative repercussions for political stability, the economy, and national security by heightening uncertainty, destabilizing key institutions, and eroding confidence. It would also underscore the judiciary’s sweeping power to reset the political order, including the removal of elected governments and mass disqualification of lawmakers. The turmoil could ultimately lead to a House dissolution and fresh elections, though the outcome remains uncertain amid an unresolved border conflict and a fragile domestic political and economic situation.

For more details and analysis on Section 144 check out Ken Lohatepanont’s post here.