People’s Party May Hold the Keys to Thailand’s Next Prime Minister

The People’s Party (PP) is poised to decide who will be Thailand’s next prime minister, following last week’s removal of now former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Though it has no candidate of its own and will not join the government, its roughly 140 seats give it the clout to push either Pheu Thai’s (PT) or Bhumjaithai’s (BJT) candidate over the threshold to form a new government. As kingmaker, PP has set conditions for its support, notably a referendum on constitutional reform and a House dissolution within four months—both of which the two contenders have accepted. The only question now is which party PP will back.

Since Paetongtarn’s removal, momentum has shifted in favor of a PP–BJT tie-up. BJT leader Anutin Charnvirakul wasted no time after the verdict in courting figures across the political spectrum, even managing to peel away PT support through factional and coalition party defections. By contrast, PT’s candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri has remained aloof, leaving caretaker PM Phumtham Wechayachai to negotiate with PP and its coalition partners. Chaikasem himself confesses that he is enjoying retirement and is not interested in the job, though he is ready to serve if called upon.

With roughly half as many MPs as PT, BJT may also be a more strategic choice for PP. A weaker partner can be kept on a tighter leash, easing concerns that it may later renege on its agreement to dissolve the House within four months. Indeed, there is talk of a tacit understanding to cap the coalition size to reassure PP. BJT’s strong interest in a swift House dissolution also makes it an attractive partner.

Anutin, for his part, is exuding a quiet confidence—as if a deal with PP is already in hand—in stark contrast to Pheu Thai, which appears bruised and uncertain about its support. He was recently spotted sipping coffee at his café and enjoying a meal of braised goose at a famous restaurant he frequents, coincidentally the same one where he dined with Thaksin years ago, with pictures of the former premier still on the wall.

Anutin is also said to be drawing up a cabinet list, something he has been planning since leaving the coalition. The tentative list has Anutin serving as both PM and Interior Minister, while Kla Tham would retain the agriculture portfolio. Three key ministerial posts—Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Commerce—would be reserved for outsiders. Defense posts would go to officers Anutin has cultivated trust with in recent years, potentially including those within Palang Pracharath leader Prawit Wongsuwon’s network.

Sensing that PT’s chances of striking a deal with PP may be slipping, Phumtham told the press yesterday that his caretaker authority gives him the power to request a House dissolution. His comment has raised eyebrows, prompting speculation that PT is considering this as a last-resort option. If carried out, the PT–BJT alliance would be left grounded. Ironically, however, this would give PP exactly what it wants: an immediate dissolution and fresh elections.

Whether the caretaker prime minister has the constitutional authority to request such a dissolution remains uncertain. Notably, the government’s legal adviser, Secretary-General of the Council of State Pakorn Nilprapunt, has reiterated that the acting prime minister lacks this authority. He also warned that, since the request goes to the King, “All actions should be undertaken with caution, avoiding any impact on the monarchy. The King remains uninvolved in politics... Anyone proposing actions must take full responsibility for them.” The statement reads as both a strong warning and a subtle admonition to PT.

Some observers have suggested cynically that Thaksin might push for a House dissolution to sow controversy and confusion that could justify a military intervention—though the probability of such a military intervention is low. He may also be factoring in his upcoming court verdict on September 9, which, if he is found guilty, could reinstate his one-year incarceration. In this scenario, Thaksin would likely want control of the Ministry of Justice to ensure he can serve out the sentence under a homestay arrangement. However, if BJT is in charge, Thaksin could see his requests thwarted.

PP has been weighing its options since Monday, yet the party has still not settled on which camp to support. Some MPs and supporters remain reluctant to endorse either PT or BJT. Even so, party leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut (Teng) has already committed publicly to PP’s terms for a partnership at its press conference on August 25. Backtracking now would be quite surprising and could prove politically costly for the party.

If a deal is reached with either party and a prime minister is voted in this week, a greater degree of political clarity could follow, and the subsequent timeline could proceed rapidly. The next government’s policy announcement could come on October 1, followed by a House dissolution in early February, elections in April, and a new government formed by early May.

A decision by PP is expected this morning at 9:30 am, when it is set to meet. Yet surprises remain possible, and a seven-to-eight-month transitional government with a limited mandate is unlikely to deliver the bold policies Thailand needs to address its immediate structural economic and social challenges.